[原创]大吉片（二期）拆迁补偿图表分析
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">首先，感谢“人小代表”及其他被拆迁户提供的拆迁补偿信息。根据他们提供的价格信息，我们做一些分析和预测。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><p> </p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">图一：是各位提供的补偿信息</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><p> </p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US"><shapetype id="_x0000_t75" stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" opreferrelative="t" ospt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"><stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><formulas><f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></f><f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></f><f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></f><f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></f><f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></f></formulas><path oconnecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" oextrusionok="f"></path><lock aspectratio="t" vext="edit"></lock></shapetype></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><p> </p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">图二：按时间排序补偿分布图(见上面图片)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #333333; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><p> </p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">分析与预测：<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">一、距今为止，拆迁补偿最高价<span lang="EN-US">4.88</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米，最低价<span lang="EN-US">1.85</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米，拆迁补偿控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元以内。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">二、依图二看，拆迁四个月以来图形变化很平稳，没有明显的上升趋势。<span lang="EN-US">1</span>、说明拆迁办把每平方米控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米是有利可图的，据此推测，他们从开发商那里要的补偿可能在每平方米<span lang="EN-US">6</span>、<span lang="EN-US">7</span>万元左右；<span lang="EN-US">2</span>、平稳的图形显示他们把补偿控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米以内还可以争取让更多的被拆迁户搬走；<span lang="EN-US">3</span>、通过图形分析，拆迁办也在同被拆迁户打心理战术，他们在拆迁时间上并不着急。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">三、通过图表分析，证明了拆迁办什么奖励期都是鬼话。图表的两个补偿高峰点是<span lang="EN-US"><chsdate ns0isrocdate="False" ns0islunardate="False" ns0day="10" ns0month="10" ns0year="2008">10<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">月10</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">日</span></span></chsdate></span>和<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月底，拆迁办借口说这是两次奖励期。据此推测，还可能会有几个奖励期，目的是把补偿控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米再让一部分人走。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">四、通过图表分析，补偿价格同面积大小和另外有没有住房无关（<span lang="EN-US"><chmetcnv ns0tcsc="0" ns0numbertype="1" ns0negative="False" ns0hasspace="False" ns0sourcevalue="50" ns0unitname="平方米">50<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">平方米</span></span></chmetcnv></span>以内），补偿多少只是只是一个弹性的策略。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">分析与预测：<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">一、距今为止，拆迁补偿最高价<span lang="EN-US">4.88</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米，最低价<span lang="EN-US">1.85</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米，拆迁补偿控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元以内。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">二、依图二看，拆迁四个月以来图形变化很平稳，没有明显的上升趋势。<span lang="EN-US">1</span>、说明拆迁办把每平方米控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米是有利可图的，据此推测，他们从开发商那里要的补偿可能在每平方米<span lang="EN-US">6</span>、<span lang="EN-US">7</span>万元左右；<span lang="EN-US">2</span>、平稳的图形显示他们把补偿控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米以内还可以争取让更多的被拆迁户搬走；<span lang="EN-US">3</span>、通过图形分析，拆迁办也在同被拆迁户打心理战术，他们在拆迁时间上并不着急。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">三、通过图表分析，证明了拆迁办什么奖励期都是鬼话。图表的两个补偿高峰点是<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">10</span>日和<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月底，拆迁办借口说这是两次奖励期。据此推测，还可能会有几个奖励期，目的是把补偿控制在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>每平方米再让一部分人走。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">四、通过图表分析，补偿价格同面积大小和另外有没有住房无关（<span lang="EN-US">50</span>平方米以内），补偿多少只是一个弹性的策略。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">下面我们把补偿按照平方米数分成五组，看看拆迁面积大小对补偿的影响。<span lang="EN-US">1</span>、建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">8</span>平方米以下为第一组；<span lang="EN-US">2</span>、建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">10</span>－<span lang="EN-US">19</span>平方米以下为第二组；<span lang="EN-US">3</span>、建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">20</span>－<span lang="EN-US">29</span>平方米以下为第三组；<span lang="EN-US">4</span>、建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">30</span>－<span lang="EN-US">40</span>平方米以下为第四组；建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">41</span>－<span lang="EN-US">49</span>平方米以下为第五组。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">依据资料，第一组建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">8.5</span>平方米一户，按照北京市不足<span lang="EN-US">15</span>平方米按照<span lang="EN-US">15</span>平方米使用面积计算，建筑面积应该是<span lang="EN-US">19.95</span>平方米，这个面积折合每平方米平均补偿价<span lang="EN-US">1.95</span>万元。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">第二组建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">10</span>－<span lang="EN-US">19</span>平方米共<span lang="EN-US">11</span>户，按照北京市不足<span lang="EN-US">15</span>平方米按照<span lang="EN-US">15</span>平方米使用面积计算，因此<span lang="EN-US">11</span>户都按照<span lang="EN-US">19.95</span>建筑面积计算，共计<span lang="EN-US">219.45</span>平方米。平均每平方米折合补偿<span lang="EN-US">2.3</span>万元。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">第三组建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">20</span>－<span lang="EN-US">29</span>平方米共<span lang="EN-US">5</span>户，平均每平方米折合补偿<span lang="EN-US">3.3</span>万元。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">第四组建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">30</span>－<span lang="EN-US">39</span>平方米共<span lang="EN-US">5</span>户，平均每平方米折合补偿<span lang="EN-US">2.72</span>万元。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">第五组建筑面积<span lang="EN-US">40</span>－<span lang="EN-US">49</span>平方米共<span lang="EN-US">3</span>户，平均每平方米折合补偿<span lang="EN-US">3.33</span>万元。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">据此可以得出结论，拆迁办说拆迁补偿面积越大越吃亏的说法是骗人的；而且，感觉面积越小的拆迁户越越心虚，容易得到满足，最起码<span lang="EN-US">50</span>平米以内是这种情况。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p> 图呢 ？ 我就不明白 补偿 为什么非要按照他们的思路走 为什么非要说多少平米啊
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